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Top 3 most likely end-of-world scenarios
Ranked by current signal strength. Each scenario shows the underlying signal weights driving its rank. Re-ranks every 60 seconds.
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Signal strength right now
Each signal is normalized 0–100. Above 70 = elevated. Above 85 = critical. Color-coded for quick read.
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The needle is the same one driving the world-state strip at the top of every page — one engine, one number, one app. See the US-Impact contribution →
How the clock is computed
The needle position is a weighted composite of live signals across nine domains. Each signal is pulled from real upstreams, normalized 0–100, and combined into a single “minutes-to-midnight” value. Higher composite = closer to midnight.
- Conflict intensity — ISW, ReliefWeb, Defense News article tempo + keyword-tagged hotspot density (Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, Taiwan).
- Cyber threats — CISA KEV new entries, Feodo C2 count, SSLBL active certs, URLHaus indicators, breach intel.
- Disasters — USGS earthquakes (M4.5+) and GDACS UN/EU global alerts severity.
- Markets stress — volatility on top crypto + macro signals; spikes registering as risk-on/risk-off.
- Space & nuclear — ISS state, satellite pings, nuclear-test seismic flags, North-Korea launch detections.
- AI development — major-lab release tempo, capability-jump signals, AI-safety incident reports, regulator actions.
- Military / troop movements — Defense News + ISW + open-source intelligence on troop redeployments, naval positioning, exercises.
- Health / pandemic — CDC alert level, WHO disease outbreak news, novel-pathogen mentions, hospitalization signals.
- Political instability — election-related volatility, coup attempts, mass protest density, sanctions announcements, alliance shifts.
Read with epistemic humility. Signal-driven clocks are useful for tempo, not destiny. The official Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Doomsday Clock is set by experts on a longer cadence; this is a complementary, real-time view computed from open data.