Pick a preset (Hormuz closure, Iran war, Taiwan strait, pandemic, China-trade) or build custom. The lab pushes the shock through the live engine and surfaces oil / CPI / equity-vol / Doomsday-minute paths.
Pick a shock
Tune parameters
Modeled propagation
Doomsday now
--:--
live engine
Doomsday after
--:--
+shock
Brent oil
$--
/bbl
US gas pump
$--
/gal
CPI re-accel
+-- bp
over 6 wk
VIX implied
--
equity vol
US-Impact Δ
+--
vs baseline
Domestic-Chaos Δ
+--
riot/drug/border
Pick a preset or tune the sliders to see the propagation narrative.
Formulas: Brent P_t = P_0 + k·R_t + M_t · CPI ~6 bp per $1 Brent change over 6 wk · VIX ~ 18 + 0.45·(politics + 0.6·conflict + 0.3·markets) · gas ~ 0.024·Brent + 0.85. Calibrated against 1990–2024 data; see /us-impact methodology.