Live engine context
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Politics signal
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Riot risk
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Federal trust
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Constitution belief
2026 — major elections
US Mid-terms (Nov 2026)
House + 1/3 Senate + 36 Governors. Swing-state vector: AZ · GA · MI · NC · NV · PA · WI.
India state elections
UP, MH cycles. BJP / INDIA-bloc dynamics. Federal-level signal for 2027.
EU member states
Multiple national + regional. Far-right + green-rollback signals.
BRICS+ rotations
Brazil regional / SÃO Paulo. South Africa coalition stress.
UK locals
Council + mayoral. Reform UK rise vs Labour majority.
Türkiye locals
Post-Erdoğan succession / consolidation signals.
Incumbent-risk drivers
- Approval × economy — Bread-and-butter metric: jobs + inflation.
- Crisis events — war, scandal, attack — double-edged (rally or punish).
- Protest density — ACLED + sentiment-tone.
- Disinfo intensity — deep-fake + AI-amplified narratives.