Live tonality — cross-link
Per-topic news tonality lives at /sentiment with a 9-topic table refreshed every 3 minutes from /api/proxy/news/headlines.
Engine narrative channel
Tonality models in production
Fed-Greenbook tonality
Regress Fed/IMF/CBO narrative tone vs forward GDP / unemployment / inflation. 1-4 quarter lag. R²~0.32.
Per-topic keyword scoring
9 topics × pos/neg keyword sets — politics, war, markets, health, AI, border, drugs, riots, elections. Used on /sentiment.
War-tone (Permutable-style)
Region-tagged conflict tone. Drives the US-Impact pass-through formula.
AI-generated scenario narratives
Local Ollama (gemma3:1b) generates 24h / 7d / 30d scenario stories per category. Cached 30 min on the FastAPI side.
Per-category synthesis
The engine pulls /api/world/predictions?category=<world|conflicts|markets|disasters|cyber|space|local> on demand. Each category gets its own gemma3:1b prompt with the per-category sitrep as context. First-load 5-25s; subsequent loads from 30-min cache.