Chokepoint status
Strait of Hormuz
Single-point dependency. Iran proxy + Hezbollah / Houthi spillover risk. Carrier presence + minesweeper escort cadence.
Suez Canal
Houthi-driven Red Sea diversions to Cape of Good Hope add 10-14 days transit. Shipping insurance premia + container-rate impact.
Panama Canal
Drought-driven draft restrictions reduce throughput. Caribbean alternates rate-limited.
Bab-el-Mandeb
Houthi missile / drone attacks. Chinese naval base in Djibouti as monitoring station.
Semiconductor fabs
TSMC (Taiwan)
3nm + advanced packaging single-point-of-failure. Taiwan-strait flashpoint risk. Arizona Fab 21 ramp partial mitigation.
Samsung (Korea)
Memory + logic. Yongin mega-fab build-out. NK missile-launch tail risk.
Intel (Arizona / Ohio)
Re-shored leading-edge. CHIPS-Act anchored. Yield-ramp watch.
SMIC (China)
BIS export-control bound; 7nm + capable but yields constrained. Domestic-substitute pressure.
Critical minerals
Lithium
EV-battery + grid-storage demand. China refining bottleneck.
Cobalt
Conflict-mineral risk. Child-labor compliance. Chinese mine-ownership.
Rare earths
NdPr permanent magnets. Defense + EV-motor critical.
Copper
Grid + EV demand pulling structurally. Strikes-driven price spikes.