Engine couplings
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AI signal
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Cyber threats
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Markets stress
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Politics
Active export-control state
BIS Entity List
SMIC, Huawei, Yangtze Memory, ChangXin Memory, plus dozens of subsidiaries. Quarterly additions.
AI chip licensing
Tiered country-controls. China-specific cap on FLOPs/chip + total export.
Fab equipment
EUV banned to China; DUV restricted. ASML revenue exposure.
China domestic substitution
7nm-class progress, yield constraints. Standardized AI-accelerator (Ascend, MTT) ramp.
Tariff schedule
- Section 301 — comprehensive; targeted-list updates with each escalation.
- Section 232 — steel/aluminum + semiconductor-specific.
- IEEPA — emergency authority used for fentanyl-precursor + EV-related actions.
- Reciprocal tariffs — tit-for-tat with China response on US ag exports + minerals.
Scenario: full decoupling
Modeled in the Scenario Lab — "China full decoupling" preset shows oil / inflation / equity-vol propagation. The engine's "Cyber-driven critical-infrastructure blackout" scenario is the kinetic-cyber tail.
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